Why UNC will, and won’t reach Final Four in our 2024 March Madness predictions

A year after missing the NCAA Tournament, UNC basketball is a No. 1 seed entering March Madness in 2024. 

Despite their loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament championship game, the Tar Heels (27-7) had a resume that helped them snag the No. 1 slot in the West Region. 

North Carolina tips things off against No. 16 Howard (18-16) or No. 16 Wagner (16-15) on Thursday (2:45 p.m., CBS) at Spectrum Center in Charlotte. 

Coming off an ACC regular-season championship in their third year under head coach Hubert Davis, the Heels will try to avoid becoming the third No. 1 seed to fall to a No. 16 seed. One of those upsets — UMBC’s win against Virginia — happened in Charlotte. 

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Here are two reasons why UNC basketball will make the Final Four and two reasons it won’t: 

RJ Davis, Armando Bacot have carried UNC basketball to Final Four 

The last time RJ Davis and Armando Bacot played in the NCAA Tournament, that duo helped the Tar Heels get to the 2022 NCAA championship game. Davis, the ACC Player of the Year, is an All-American as one of the top guards in the nation. Bacot, who is averaging a double-double, had six double-double performances in March Madness 2022. Both players know what it takes and are capable of carrying UNC to the Final Four.

The Tar Heels have defense, history in their favor

UNC is 16-2 at Spectrum Center, including 5-1 in NCAA Tournament games. In their record 18 appearances as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels advanced to the Final Four in 10 of those seasons. In four of UNC’s last six March Madness experiences as a top seed, UNC advanced to the Final Four, twice winning the NCAA title — including 2017 in Phoenix. 

As for on-court success, UNC is sixth in defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom.com. The Tar Heels have produced a top-11 defense in five seasons since 2005. Three of those years ended with Elite Eight berths and two ended with the Tar Heels cutting down the nets as national champions.

Caleb Love, Arizona could be on collision course with Tar Heels

The NCAA Tournament committee outdid itself with this year’s script, putting Caleb Love and his second-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the same region as the Tar Heels. Love, who became a postseason hero for UNC in 2022, is the Pac-12 Player of the Year for a team that beat Duke in Durham this season. Two years after burying the Blue Devils in the Final Four, could Love prevent the Tar Heels from getting to Phoenix? It would be one heck of a story.

Will Cormac Ryan, Elliot Cadeau and Harrison Ingram boost UNC’s offense?

It’s weird to see the metrics for a program that’s been known for its uptempo offense, but defense has been UNC’s strength throughout the season. Going back to 2005, the Tar Heels were top 20 in offensive efficiency in each of their six Final Four appearances. Entering this year’s tourney, UNC is No. 24. In the Tar Heels’ loss to NC State, three of UNC’s starters — Cormac Ryan, Elliot Cadeau and Harrison Ingram — combined to miss 21 of their 28 shots. If the Heels can't get consistency outside of Davis and Bacot, they won't get to the Final Four.

March Madness prediction: UNC basketball will get to Final Four

These Tar Heels are much better defensively than the group that got hot in 2022. The last time Phoenix hosted the Final Four, UNC cut down the nets. UConn will be raising the trophy this year, but the Tar Heels will be among the last teams in the mix.

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Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reachedrbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on X/Twitter. 

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