Fayetteville election-watcher: Michael Colvin win is about more than his last name
Myron B. Pitts“Newcomer” Mike Colvin scored a surprisingly robust victory in the Democratic primary for state House District 42. He took 35% of the vote in unofficial results, in a tough field, knocking out Dr. Naveed Aziz, an experienced campaigner, who finished second, and third and fourth place finishers, former Rep. Elmer Floyd and Fayetteville City Councilwoman Courtney-Banks McLaughlin.
I asked local elections watcher George Breece about that race and other races for Tuesday’s primary, which included the names Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Donald Trump Jr. on ballots in our state. Those two won, in case you missed it.
I like to pick Breece’s brain after elections. He won’t mind that I call him an “old hand” in the local political scene, not because he’s old but because he’s seasoned.
Colvin is the younger brother of Fayetteville Mayor Mitch Colvin, who won a fourth term last year. But Colvin’s success was due to more than his family connection, Breece said.
“His first time seeking public office,” he said. “He had worked in a lot of campaigns. He had worked in the Democratic Party, he had given a lot of himself to politics at his young age.
“And it paid off for him. He did everything he knew that he needed to win and he won comfortably.”
He added: “And of course, he’ll be in Raleigh raising his right hand in January.”
He was referencing that District 42 has a huge Democratic lean and is not expected to be competitive. Colvin does have an opponent, Leonard Bryant, who did not have a primary opponent.
March 5 rock stars
Colvin was endorsed by longtime incumbent Rep. Marvin Lucas, who is retiring in the District 42 seat. Colvin is one of three people in local races who Breece calls “March 5 rock stars.”
The other two are former state Sen. Kirk deViere, who placed first among four candidates vying in the Democratic primary for a District 2 Cumberland County commissioners’ seat; and Henry Tyson, who outpaced five other Republican competitors to win that primary.
The commissioner candidates are vying for three seats — two of them to be vacated by incumbents Michael Boose and Jimmy Keefe, neither of whom sought reelection.
In addition to deViere, incumbent Dr. Toni Stewart and newcomer Karla Icaza will advance to the November ballot, having placed second and third respectively. On the GOP side, Pete Pappas, who placed second, and Pavan Patel, third, will advance.
Breece said of deViere that not too many people were going to outwork him, and “his direct mail pieces were excellent.”
He said that Tyson had run a close but unsuccessful race years ago against former City Councilman Johnny Dawkins: “He probably learned a lot of lessons from that.”
By the way, deViere, Stewart and Icaza will appear on WIDU-99.7 FM on the Wake Up show at 8 a.m. with Wes Cookman and Robert Brickey. I will be there, too.
WIDU streams live on its Facebook page, where it also has the most comprehensive set of video interviews of candidates you are likely to see this cycle, including a rare interview with Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who Tuesday night become the Republican nominee for governor.
How election nerds get down
Speaking of WIDU, I got the pleasure Tuesday night of serving with its Election Central broadcast team as the numbers came in Tuesday night. It was quite a cast, and quite a blast. It was a room full of my fellow election nerds -- so I was right at home.
At one point, businesswoman and campaign consultant Laura Hardy said that for her, even seeing at the state board of elections website the date of the first time she voted had emotional resonance for her. She got a room full of agreement. That's the kind of team it was.
The team comprised Jay Reinstein, the anchor and a funny guy who often had the room in stitches, and panelists Dr. Toni Morris; Fayetteville City Councilwoman Brenda McNair ; Hardy; Darsweil Rogers; Troy Williams; Dr Chris Davis; Dr Antonio Jones and myself.
Not to mention, politicians from all sides of the spectrum called in or dropped in, from Republican governor candidate and N.C. Treasurer Dale Folwell to Democratic candidate Janene Ackles-Dublin, who is running for House District 42 to Semone Pemberton, a Republican candidate for Senate District 19.
Bravo to Wes and Sandy Cookman, and the inimitable Jay, for making such a platform possible.
He predicts a big turnout in November
Breece is one of the more disarmingly friendly guys in Fayetteville. He always asks after my mom, and family. He has a full, cheery, sincere laugh — one that could send Santa to his pen and pad to take notes.
His traits as an analyst of local and state politics are incisive, insightful, funny. They are just as often imbued with simple, cold logic when it comes to the political scene or various political candidates’ real chances.
He opened up our convo Wednesday with a little bit of pizzazz.
First, he called the early voter turnout in Cumberland County, “disappointing.”
“It was considerably less than the 2020 presidential primary,” he said. “A good little bit less.”
Preliminary numbers put the turnout at 17%, trailing the state average of 24%.
I raised my eyebrows at what Breece said next.
He said he hopes that the November election would push turnout for the general election in November to 67% of the vote in our county. I asked if he really thought that could happen and he said he thinks it's achievable -- in part because of interest in the presidential race.
“The presidential race is going to be — short of a nuclear, political war — it’s gonna be as contentious and as negative as you’ll ever find," he said. "So, that’s going to bring out both camps. I don’t mean the extreme parts of the camps. I’m talking about the regular, everyday supporters.”
Marquee matchups; big contrast
Breece said turnout would also benefit because of the county commissioner races and marquee statewide matchups in races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
In the governor's race, Republican candidate Robinson has made national headlines over the last few days, as his big victory in the primary caused national reporters to dig into a background that includes remarks that have been anti-Semitic, anti-LGBTQ+, even anti-MLK. Democratic Party nominee Josh Stein, who is Jewish, has run a more reserved, by-the-book campaign in the mold of the man he hopes to succeed, two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
Breece believes the big contrast between the two candidates for the open seat will further drive turnout.
Expect big spending in North Carolina this year, too, like nothing we have seen before, he said.
"Everything is going to be turned on its head by the presidential election and the governor's race," he said.
Opinion Editor Myron B. Pitts can be reached at mpitts@fayobserver.com or 910-486-3559. Samuel Pitts contributed to this column.
