Why Duke will, and won’t reach Final Four in our 2024 March Madness predictions

Duke basketball was one of the preseason favorites to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament. 

But the Blue Devils (24-8) are trending in the wrong direction ahead of March Madness as a No. 4 seed in the South Region, which includes Houston, Marquette, Kentucky and ACC Tournament champion NC State.

Following back-to-back losses, Duke could be on upset alert against No. 13 Vermont (28-6) on Friday (7:10 p.m., CBS) in Brooklyn, New York. The Devils, led by second-year coach Jon Scheyer, lost in the second round of last year’s NCAA Tournament as a 5 seed. 

Duke advanced to the Sweet 16 as a 4 seed in 2016, but in its national championship seasons the Blue Devils were no worse than a top-2 seed. 

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Even so, Final Fours and national titles are the standard for the Blue Devils. That won’t change, but here are two reasons why Duke basketball will make the Final Four and two reasons it won't: 

Duke basketball has an elite offense, capable defense

According to KenPom.com, Duke is No. 7 in offensive efficiency and No. 26 in defensive efficiency. The last six times they were top 26 in both categories entering March Madness, the Blue Devils advanced to at least the Sweet 16. In three of those seasons, Duke advanced to the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils cut down the nets as national champions in two others, so history could be on their side as they chase a sixth title.

Jeremy Roach, Kyle Filipowski can carry the Blue Devils 

Duke has a senior captain in Jeremy Roach who has experienced a run to the Final Four and a player in Kyle Filipowski who is capable of being the top player in the NCAA Tournament. Roach, who has averaged 13.5 points in seven March Madness games, is knocking down a career-best 43.6% of his 3-pointers this season as Duke's most consistent guard.

Filipowski averaged 9.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in last season’s NCAA Tournament, but he’s coming in on a tear this year. In the last two games, Filipowski has averaged 25.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. The 7-footer is capable of putting the Blue Devils on his back. 

Jamal Shead, Houston would be an awful matchup for Duke 

Don’t let Houston’s head-scratching blowout loss to Iowa State fool you. That performance was an outlier for the Cougars, who are second in defensive efficiency (KenPom) and one of the toughest groups in the nation. If Duke and Houston met in the Sweet 16, that game would likely resemble the Blue Devils’ loss to Tennessee last season. Jamal Shead and the Cougars have consistently brought the fight to opponents throughout the year.

The Blue Devils haven’t brought their best against the best

Looking at Duke’s resume, its best wins were against Michigan State in Chicago and Baylor in New York City. The latter is a positive sign for the Blue Devils — who always garner big support in New York — but they haven’t consistently brought their best against the best teams on their schedule. In losses to Arizona and North Carolina, Duke was outworked on both ends. It's become a troubling trend.

March Madness prediction: How far will Duke go?

The Blue Devils have the talent to get to Phoenix, but this group hasn’t consistently shown an ability to couple that talent with elite effort. If Duke runs into Houston, it’ll be physical from start to finish. That doesn’t bode well for the Blue Devils. 

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Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reachedrbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on X/Twitter. 

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