Weather Permitting: Storms ahead for Fayetteville this weekend

The Cape Fear region could be looking at its first taste of spring storminess this weekend. 

A strong storm system will slide into the Carolinas on Saturday bringing another round of showers. Timing and storm track will determine just how rough things will get for the Cape Fear region, but the Storm Prediction Center has given the region its first Level 2 severe outlook of the young season.

After that, look for warmer, spring-like conditions as we head into the next week.

Here's the setup

Weak, mild high pressure will advance across the Carolinas today and Friday, giving the region calm conditions into the weekend. Look for highs both days near 70 in Fayetteville, with lows of about 50. Later Friday, clouds will arrive ahead of a storm system.

The weekend

As high pressure slips offshore, a decent low-pressure system will move in from the west. It looks like rain will begin in the Cape Fear region early Saturday, certainly by sunrise,

During the day, modeling projects a secondary low developing to our northwest. Just where and when this happens will determine what, if any, rough weather comes with it. 

The concern is that some modeling has this secondary low sliding up through the Piedmont on Saturday afternoon. This puts our neck of the woods in a warm pocket of air, ripe for storm development. 

With the ground already wet from recent rains there will be plenty of moisture to work with. Low- and mid-level shear would be strong enough for severe storm development, including heavy showers and a slim chance of isolated tornadoes. 

Both the Euro and the NAM are locked into this strong-to-severe scenario Saturday afternoon, Other modeling keeps the low away from our region, with less rainfall and a lower threat of serious weather. 

Until the secondary low forms, there's no real way to determine just where it will track. At any rate, clouds will hold highs across the region in the mid-60s, dropping into the low 50s as the system passes.

Sunday will be clearing and a bit cooler, with a strong northwest wind arriving. Highs will likely hold in the low 60s, with lows of about 40.

Next week

Winds will still be brisk on Monday as high pressure builds over the Carolinas. highs will be in the low 60s, lows of about 40. After that, a warming trend returns to the region. Look for highs in the upper 60s on Tuesday, low 70s by mid-week.

Down the road

The Cape Fear region should remain mild through the week, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s, perhaps 80 to the south by Friday. After that, another storm system could be arriving.

Keep an eye on Saturday's weather, and have a great weekend!

Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com of NCWeatherhound on X/Twitter.